We use this equation to calculate the evolution of stored gas shown in Figure 3. This equation offers a close approximation of the evolution of gas storage over a few periods (see appendix). Increased winter demand for gas must be met by stored gas, gas produced domestically and imported gas. Very high prices since September shows that demand is resistant to price increases, ie demand for natural gas is highly inelastic. The interpretation is therefore that in scenarios with negative or low storage, extremely high prices would remain on European markets in order to force demand off-grid (be it from industry or final consumers) or encourage higher imports. As our analysis is static it does not take into account the fact that prices act as a balancing mechanism between demand and supply. Our analysis is intentionally simplistic (see details below) but offers an insight into two factors: a colder than usual winter will be very bad news for Europe, and imports must remain at minimum at the average level of the previous five years. On average from 2016 to 2020, it took until the third week of January for reserves to drop this low. In mid-December 2021, Europe had 690 TWh of gas in storage. The figure shows how demand, imports and production have contributed to this change.ДЄs of December 2021, storage levels are below the minimum volume recorded for this time of the year in any of the previous five years. In January, the volume of stored gas was slightly above that average, but by October it had fallen significantly below the average.

Figure 1 compares gas storage in 2021 with average values between 20. Russian reluctance to increase exports and tight liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets have led to concerns that Europe may face an energy crisis this winter, which will see what gas is in storage depleting rapidly. As a result, Europe has become particularly dependent on imports. Strong demand in the first half of 2021 did not allow for a significant build-up of gas reserves in storage facilities prior to the winter period. Please find our latest related analysis here.Д®uropeвЂ™s natural gas position is uncertain heading into 2022.

Winalign not enough storage